UFC 333 Predictions & Best Bets: Volkanovski vs. Evloev (Full Card Picks)

UFC 333 takes over Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, October 24, with two title fights on top: Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight belt against the unbeaten Movsar Evloev, and Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili settle their bantamweight trilogy. It's an early one for us on the West Coast. Early prelims start at 7 a.m. PT, prelims at 9 a.m. PT and the main card at 11 a.m. PT, all on Paramount+. Olin, Nano and Pip broke down all 14 fights on the Predictions & Best Bets stream, and it took until the heavyweights for all three of us to agree on a single pick. That usually means a fun card. Here's how the show sees every matchup. Watch the full episode, UFC 333 Predictions & Best Bets, on the MMAnomaly YouTube channel.

Main Card Picks

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight Title)

The champ walked into fight week in full Street Fighter costume, and the room was split before we even got to the tape. Nano leaned Volkanovski: greatness until proven otherwise. Evloev is 20-0 at 32, but he doesn't yet have a signature win, while Volk has seen everything, including two fights with Islam Makhachev and two with Diego Lopes. Nano thinks Evloev can take early rounds, and he likes Volk if he starts stuffing takedowns late. Pip went the other way with Evloev by unanimous decision. Volk is 38. Outside of the two Lopes wins he hasn't beaten anyone since 2023, and Evloev's chain wrestling, adaptable entries, body work and conditioning are a style Volk hasn't had to solve. Olin sided with the champion, Volkanovski by unanimous decision, with a finish not out of the question. His case: Evloev has fought more Nik Lentz and Mike Grundy types than elite names. His closest fights came against his best opposition, and only seven of his 20 wins are finishes. Volk doesn't panic against wrestlers. He circles off the fence, and he makes you pay with the left hand, knees and body shots on the way in.

Best bet angle: Fight goes the distance. Whichever side you're on, that might be the real lock.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Bantamweight Title, Trilogy)

Merab won the first fight in March 2023. Yan took the belt back at UFC 323 last December, stuffing most of Merab's takedowns, scrambling up fast, controlling range with switch stances and body kicks and even landing takedowns of his own. Pip called it Yan out-Merab-ing Merab. Pip took Yan by unanimous decision. He's on four straight wins, he's the younger man, and Pip doesn't see Merab finding big improvements in 10 months. His one red flag is Yan's extensive back surgery. Olin made Merab his dog of the week: the anime rule, where the hero never loses to the same move twice. Merab has had time to sit with that loss, he'll come in expecting the unexpected, and Olin sees a decision that looks a lot like the first fight, with Merab keeping Yan down or on the fence. Nano broke the tie with Yan. The trilogy numbers favor the man who won the second fight, Yan's boxing is the difference if it stays standing, and a Merab who isn't landing his takedowns is hard to score rounds for.

Best bet angle: Yan is the chalk side. If you think Merab gets it back, he was around +136 on the show, and we called that real value for a 1-1 trilogy.

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov (Flyweight)

Olin and Nano both took Kavanagh, probably by decision. Temirov has scary first-round power, but Kavanagh has the length, accuracy and movement to make him miss and pick him apart from range. Kavanagh's last loss was the Brandon Royval fight, a competitive one he can learn from. Nano also has him on his fantasy team, so take that with a grain of salt. Pip went the other way: Temirov by knockout, round three. He's riding a 12-fight win streak and is a durable power puncher with solid takedown defense, and Pip thinks Kavanagh has looked too hittable lately. Pip named Temirov as his best value pick of the night. The line flipped during the week, with Kavanagh around -115 on the show.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight)

Finally, a full panel. All three hosts took Volkov. Nano loves everything Drago is doing right now, and he sees no sign of decline in the size, pedigree and skill. Pip went with Volkov by unanimous decision. Kuniev is a pressure fighter with a sambo base who wants to get chest to chest on the fence. Volkov has a four-inch reach advantage and the footwork to keep him at the end of jabs and kicks. Kuniev's fight with Curtis Blaydes is the warning sign for him. Olin expects Volkov's jab to work like a piston, with the uppercut there all night against the shorter man.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight)

Allen's injury brought in Keita on about five weeks' notice. Pip took Keita by knockout, round two. Keita is the cleaner, more patient pure striker, his takedown defense is excellent, and we've seen Pico get caught when he overcommits and gets tunnel vision. Nano and Olin both took Pico. Nano likes the boxing and wrestling to neutralize a firefight. Olin pointed to the wrestling, the fight IQ and the work at American Kickboxing Academy that has sharpened his hands since he finally looked comfortable in the UFC beating Patricio Pitbull. Keita walked through Muhammad Naimov, so if it ends early, Pip is probably right. But Olin trusts the more complete mixed martial artist. The chin is the open question. One of the best lines of the night: a chin is like a milk carton, and every hard knockdown takes days off the expiration date.

Prelims Picks

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight)

Nano almost got talked out of it by Azamat's shredded fight-week photos, but he stayed on Murzakanov: the pedigree, the power and a wrestling option make him the likelier man to land the knockout. Pip and Olin both took the people's champ. Pip has Reyes by knockout, round one. Reyes has a reach advantage, a nasty body kick and the left straight to catch Murzakanov rushing in, coming off his first pro loss, a knockout against Paulo Costa. Olin picked Reyes too. Costa was landing to the body all night, Reyes's shovel hooks and kicks can do the same, and a leaner Murzakanov's gas tank is a question over 15 minutes.

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight)

A clean sweep for the unbeaten prospect. Nano, who admitted some bias, expects Yakhyaev to take Krylov down and grind him into mincemeat. Pip has Yakhyaev by knockout, round one: he's 10-0 with power and takedowns that blend with his striking, and Krylov is coming off a TKO loss to Robert Whittaker and rushes in with his hands down. Olin likes Yakhyaev by TKO inside two rounds. Krylov is a jack of all trades and a master of none. Yakhyaev closed around -570, so Olin built a parlay of Yakhyaev by knockout with a low rounds total that pays around +115, and put one unit on it.

Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight)

A coin flip at about -125 / +107. Olin went with the veteran, Magomedov by decision, on experience and composure. Nano stayed on Magomedov too. He was impressed by the fire Abus showed in his guillotine win over Michał Oleksiejczuk after the loss to Joe Pyfer. Pip took the rising Australian, Rowston by rear-naked choke, round three. Rowston is a City Kickboxing striker with real power, but his last fight was a grinding decision over Robert Bryczek built on control time. Pip expects him to fight behind the jab, mix in takedowns, wear Magomedov down and find the back late.

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight)

Full panel sweep: Dawson for all three. Pip has him by unanimous decision. Aliev is a physical, persistent wrestler who wins the position and grinds, but Dawson is the more technical grappler. He scrambles well, recovers positions and takes the back, and Mike Davis showed there are openings when Aliev shoots sloppy. Nano likes the savvy veteran at 24-3. Olin pointed to the numbers. Dawson keeps threatening the takedown like Merab until something lands, and Aliev only lands about 2.29 significant strikes a minute, so if he can't hurt Dawson early, he's probably in for a long night. The line was about as close to a pick'em as you'll see.

Early Prelims Picks

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight)

Chopurov is 11-0 and making his UFC debut as a big favorite. Pip trusts the prospect, Chopurov by knockout, round two: he's insanely fast on the feet, explosive, solid defensively and nasty on top. Pip just hasn't been impressed with Thicknesse. Olin went to the underdog, Thicknesse. His one career loss was a decision to Aleksandre Topuria, a fight he was competitive in. He's tough as nails, he has UFC experience against a debutant, and if he stuffs the early aggression and makes it a grind, he can rack up rounds. Olin thinks the odds make zero sense and wants either a round-one finish or a decision.

Best bet angle: Olin's longshot plays. Small stakes on Thicknesse on the moneyline (around +458 on the show), to win by decision (+850) and to win in round one (+2000).

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight)

All three took Vagaev. Pip has him by unanimous decision, chaining takedowns and controlling Malkoun for a grindy 15 minutes. Vagaev opened his UFC run with a decision win over Saygid Izagakhmaev, and his wrestling is a level above. Malkoun is on a three-fight win streak with fast hands and a high output, but he has had fight-IQ issues in scrambles. Olin has Vagaev by TKO late in round two or early in round three, or otherwise a decision. Nano likes the wrestling pedigree at any weight and a healthier camp without a brutal cut. We were all surprised that Vagaev is listed as the bigger man.

Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight)

Another sweep: Santos. Oki is coming down a weight class and will be the much longer, taller man, so Olin wants Willycat to stop head-hunting, dig to the body and chop the legs on the way in. He has Santos by decision, closer than the odds suggest. Nano likes Santos in a phone booth and in deep water. Pip has Santos by ground and pound, round three. He's worried about Oki's cut, cardio and chin at a new weight, and he expects Santos's takedowns and dirty boxing in the clinch to be the difference. The weigh-ins will tell us more. Santos around -122 was one of our value picks.

Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon (Lightweight)

Panel sweep for Steele. Nano likes him in the prime of his career with more UFC experience. Steele came through the Contender Series, lost a war to Rongzhu in his debut and bounced back with a heel hook of Dom Mar Fan. Pip has Steele by rear-naked choke, round two: a BJJ black belt and combat jiu-jitsu champion who listens to his corner, is extremely durable and has more ways to win than Gugnon. Olin agreed and expects a grind, calling the line of about -150 / +128 a fair number. This matters for us beyond the bet. The loser is our pick for DWCS standout George Staines.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari (Strawweight)

The opener, and all three took Lucindo. Caliari is a grappler first and looked dominant at strawweight, submitting Shauna Bannon with an arm triangle in round three. Pip gives her the edge in jiu-jitsu but gives Lucindo the edge in pure wrestling and a big power advantage, with Lucindo by TKO, round three. Nano thinks Lucindo is a stud with plenty of room to grow, and she rebounded from the Amanda Lemos loss with a win over Angela Hill. Olin sees her striking volume being too much. At around -350 / +284, it's one we're just going to enjoy without a bet.

Best Bets & The Show Parlay

• Olin's three-leg parlay (half unit, about +570): Volkanovski, Volkov and Kavanagh, all slight favorites in pick'em fights.

• Yakhyaev parlay (one unit, about +115): Yakhyaev by knockout with a low rounds total, to turn a -570 favorite into plus money.

• Olin's Thicknesse longshots: Small stakes on the moneyline, by decision (+850) and in round one (+2000).

• Value picks: Pip on Temirov; Dawson, Volkov and Santos as cheap favorites; Merab at about +136 as the honorable mention.

• No bet: Lucindo vs. Caliari at -350 / +284.

Odds moved all week, so check your book before you bet. If we add any more plays, we'll post a graphic on the MMAnomaly YouTube Community tab and on X.

Looking Ahead

Two title fights, a stack of prospect tests and three hosts who couldn't agree on half the card. That's the recipe for a lot of chaos on an early Saturday morning. Steele vs. Gugnon also helps set up George Staines's next fight. We'll score every pick on the Reactions & What's Next show after the dust settles in Abu Dhabi. Tell us who you've got in the comments on the YouTube episode. Stay tuned…