UFC Vegas 123 Predictions & Best Bets: Moicano vs. Nolan (Full Card Picks)

The UFC goes trick-or-treating at Meta APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday, October 31, and for once we get fights on actual Halloween night. Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline UFC Vegas 123 in a five-round lightweight main event, with Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith and a first-of-its-kind Santos vs. Santos fight right behind it. Prelims start at 2 p.m. PT and the main card at 5 p.m. PT, both on Paramount+. Olin, Nano and Pip broke down all 12 fights on the Predictions & Best Bets stream. It isn't the deepest card of the year, but the main event alone could reshape the lightweight rankings. Here's how the show sees every matchup. Watch the full episode, UFC Vegas 123 Predictions & Best Bets, on the MMAnomaly YouTube channel.

Main Card Picks

Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Five Rounds)

Olin called this the most meaningful fight on the card. The winner climbs, and the loser is in for a rough few matchups. Nano opened with Moicano. He likes Tom Nolan as a prospect, but this is by far the toughest test of his career, under main-event lights, and Moicano is well-rounded enough everywhere to make Nolan prove it first. Pip went with the big train: Nolan by decision, with a few close calls along the way. Moicano is back in the win column after a second-round rear-naked choke of Chris Duncan in April, but Nolan is on a five-fight win streak, 11 years younger, three inches taller and an inch longer, with takedowns he times well into his striking. Pip pointed to the Beneil Dariush fight as the warning sign: once Dariush mixed in takedowns, Moicano's game fell apart. Olin sided with experience, Moicano by decision or late submission. He sees Moicano taking Nolan's best shots early, weathering the storm and then dumping and controlling him in the later rounds with smart pressure, clinch work and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Nolan has never been in a five-round fight, and Moicano has prepared for five-rounders many times.

Best bet angle: It's close on paper, around -125 Moicano and +107 Nolan on the show, so nobody is betting it outright. Olin is putting Moicano in his round robins instead.

Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight)

Pip has been telling you to watch Jacobe Smith for a while, and he's all in: Smith by ground-and-pound knockout, midway through round two. Smith is an unbeaten prospect with power, fast combinations and aggressive takedowns. Randy Brown dips his head forward when he throws big shots and bites on feints, which invites the clinch, and Pip expects Smith to pin him to the fence, chain takedowns and land hammerfists and elbows on top, the way Kevin Holland controlled him. Olin made Rude Boy his dog: Brown. This is the young lion against the old lion who still has teeth. Olin expects Brown's length and timing to survive the early burst, frustrate Smith at range and pick him apart late, and he made a point the show kept coming back to: you don't run through Randy Brown. Even if Smith wins, we'll learn more about him here than in his whole UFC run so far. Nano admitted it's a brutal spot because he's a Rude Boy fan. Brown is 36 with two straight losses, and Nano thinks Smith has every skill to make this his coming-out party, as long as he keeps his emotions in check.

Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight)

There's real heat on this one after the fight-week trash talk. Olin picked Durden. Osbourne has the flash and the power, but his recent form has been more highlight-reel misses than consistent wins. Durden is the grinder who wrestles, drags fights into messy scrambles and outworks you for 15 minutes, and every time Osbourne lifts a leg for one of his high or low kicks, he hands Durden a takedown entry. Nano went the other way with Osbourne. He respects Durden's wrestling, but Osbourne has the nuclear option and a six-inch reach advantage, and if he keeps Durden off the front foot early, Nano thinks he steals the first two rounds at a minimum. Pip called it his fight of the night and broke the tie with Osbourne by knockout, round one. Osbourne is just 1-4 in his last five, but he's been competitive, and his takedown defense is underrated. Pip expects Durden to panic-shoot when the striking gets hard, and Durden's hands-down, looping style is a problem against straight shots down the middle.

Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight)

To the show's knowledge, this is the first time two fighters named Santos have met in the UFC. Loser changes their last name. Both are on three-fight win streaks. The panel swept it for Luana Santos, the 26-year-old Brazilian, over the 36-year-old Yana. Olin, who called Luana a potential future champion on our division-rankings show, likes her youth, control and willingness to mix it up to bank rounds and maybe find a late finish. Nano expects her more well-rounded game to win the striking and grappling differentials and push her win streak to four. Pip has Luana by unanimous decision. Yana is the better striker, with kicks at range and elbows and knees in the clinch, but Luana pushes forward, pins you to the cage, uses her judo to get it down and controls from the headlock and side control. A win could put her in title contention.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight)

Another panel sweep, and this one turned into a bet. Pip opened with Lebosnoyani by triangle, round two. Hasanov is undefeated and showed solid, chained wrestling in his decision win over Eric Nolan, but he faded fast after the first round. Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded welterweight with a good jab, body kicks and head movement, plus slick scrambles and guillotines, and Pip expects him to survive an aggressive first round and break Hasanov down. Nano, riding with Mufasa, likes Lebosnoyani's edge, swagger and UFC experience at 27, and he wants to see more from Hasanov before he believes it. He doesn't think the judges will be needed. Olin has Lebosnoyani by knockout in round two, about two minutes and 45 seconds in, once he finds his rhythm on the feet. In his words, Hasanov is the new guy who shows up to the gym bragging about his perfect record until he runs into the quiet blue belt.

Best bet angle: Lebosnoyani in round two. All three liked the number, and Olin put a full unit on it.

Prelims Picks

Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope (Featherweight)

A third sweep, for Francis Marshall. Nano likes the fire marshal's full camp against a short-notice opponent, and he hasn't seen enough from Dakota Hope to think he shocks the world. Pip calls Marshall one of his favorite fighters on the roster, but that isn't why he picked him. Marshall is coming off back-to-back wins, has seven UFC fights at 27 and is the cleaner, more technical striker, with the left straight and calf kicks to punish Hope's short, aggressive bursts. Hope is coming off a loss to Kai Kamaka in his UFC debut. Pip has Marshall by rear-naked choke, round two. Olin has Marshall by decision or TKO in round two or three, a death-by-a-thousand-bee-stings performance.

Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren (Welterweight)

This one looked like a toss-up at about -176 Sezinando and +149 Berggren on the show. Olin took Sezinando by decision, but not with much confidence. Berggren has power, four inches of reach and an inch of height, but Sezinando looks like the more complete and active fighter, able to push a pace without getting wild. Nano also took Sezinando in a grindy decision. He has the wrestling background and the bigger gas tank, and Berggren looks a little frail for the weight, as long as Sezinando avoids the big shot. Pip didn't log a pick, and nobody is betting it. The highlight was the hosts singing "The Lion Sleeps Tonight" for Berggren.

Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight)

Olin's dog of the week: Julian Erosa by unanimous decision or a late round-three finish. Juicy J usually beats the people he isn't supposed to, and to Olin's knowledge this is his retirement fight, so expect him to leave everything in there. Erosa is bigger, more experienced and the higher-volume fighter, and Lee has shown gas-tank issues when the pace rises. Pip went back and forth for days. Lee wants to get Erosa out early, and Erosa is coming off two straight losses, including a stoppage in his last fight. But Lee fades and overthrows after the first round, so Pip is fading the fader with Erosa by anaconda choke, round three. Nano made it a sweep for Erosa. If Lee keeps it at a sparring pace, he can win, but Nano thinks Lee will come out trying to take Erosa's head off, miss, and get dragged into a chaotic fight on Erosa's terms.

Best bet angle: Olin put one unit on Erosa on the moneyline at +140 and half a unit on Erosa by submission, which pays 1.75 units on a half-unit stake.

Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall (Middleweight)

Nano is the show's Zachary Reese guy, so he went first: Reese by decision or late finish. Reese is coming off back-to-back losses and has plenty to get off his chest. Mickey Gall, 34, is on a four-fight skid and hasn't fought since November 2024, and Nano doesn't know how much gas he has in the tank. Pip has Reese by knockout, round one. Gall is a dangerous BJJ black belt, but he has little offense or takedown defense beyond his submissions. Another bout fell through in September after a procedure. Reese has power, rangy combinations and nasty body kicks, plus a brown belt of his own if it hits the mat. Olin made it a sweep with Reese by TKO in round one or two. Reese is younger, heavier, longer, stronger and taller, and he can actually finish fights on the feet. Olin's one wish is that Reese would use his jab and cross more to set things up.

Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot (Middleweight)

Another sweep, this time for the debuting Joe Kropschot, whatever the correct way to say his name is. After some gaslighting from Pip, the show landed on "Crop-shot." Pip didn't hold back on Nick Klein. Klein comes out aggressive and chains takedowns, but his striking is poor, and in his recent losses he has folded the moment things got hard, sitting down after getting hurt. Kropschot is the cleaner, longer striker who builds as the fight goes, with good distance management and excellent submissions in scrambles. Pip has Kropschot by heel hook, round one. Olin likes Kropschot by TKO, with the size and finishing ability to end his night early. Nano took Kropschot too. A debutant who opens as a big favorite usually means there's something there, and his heavy hands should be too much for Klein over time.

Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight)

A sweep for Piera Rodriguez, about -298 on the show. Nano likes the cleaner all-around striker to land early and make Alencar gun-shy about shooting. Pip has Rodriguez by unanimous decision. Alencar is a dangerous BJJ black belt once it hits the mat, but she has very little striking defense, so Rodriguez needs to stay away from the clinch, keep it standing, use her length and chop the legs. Olin sees Rodriguez as the more consistent, technical fighter on the feet and on the mat. He expects her to dictate the pace to a decision, and he calls Alencar a live dog if she can make it messy.

Lucia Szabová vs. Tainara Lisboa (Women's Flyweight)

The card opens with an unbeaten debutant, and all three hosts took Lucia Szabová. Szabová is 12-0 and making her UFC debut as a heavy favorite. Pip called her an insanely creative submission artist and has Szabová by armbar, round one. Tainara Lisboa is 2-2 in the UFC with solid Muay Thai, but she can't stop takedowns. Olin likes Szabová's speed and accuracy for an early TKO, and she may be even stronger at flyweight after fighting at bantamweight. Nano took the debutant too. He expects her striking and physicality to outclass a veteran he likes, and he noted that Vegas doesn't make a debutant this big a favorite by accident.

Best Bets & Round Robins

• Lebosnoyani in round two (Olin, one unit): The whole panel liked it, and it's the show's favorite prop on the card.

• Erosa moneyline (Olin, one unit, +140): Dog of the week.

• Erosa by submission (half unit): A sprinkle a viewer pitched in the chat, and Olin was right there with them.

• Olin's round robins: Built from his picks, including Moicano, Randy Brown, Durden, Luana Santos, Lebosnoyani, Marshall, Erosa, Reese and Szabová. Kropschot was cut to fit the eight-pick limit.

• No bet: Moicano vs. Nolan on the moneyline, and Sezinando vs. Berggren.

Odds moved all week, so check your book before you bet. Olin is posting the full round-robin slips on the MMAnomaly YouTube Community tab, X and Instagram.

Looking Ahead

A Halloween main event with real lightweight stakes, a prospect test for Jacobe Smith, a grudge match at flyweight and plenty of dogs worth a sprinkle. That's a fun Saturday for a card some people slept on. We'll score every pick on the Reactions & What's Next show after the dust settles at the APEX. Tell us who you've got in the comments on the YouTube episode. Stay tuned…