UFC Vegas 123: The Biggest Winners & Losers (And What's Next?)

UFC Vegas 123 gave us fights on actual Halloween night at the Meta APEX, and one call from the third man in the cage is all anyone wanted to talk about. Tom Nolan stopped Renato Moicano in the third round of the main event, but only after referee Dan Miragliotta stood the fighters up while Moicano had Nolan's back. Pip had the night off, so Olin and Jive Turkey Nano went live Monday for the Reactions & What's Next show. Wrestling ruled the card, the prospects mostly passed their tests, and Juicy J went out on his shield. Below are the biggest winners, the biggest losers and what should come next for each of them, plus how our picks and bets held up.

Biggest Winners

1. Tom Nolan

Nolan spent long stretches of the first two rounds playing human backpack. Moicano locked in a body triangle, cranked the neck and made Nolan carry him while he fought off the rear-naked choke. Then, in the second round, Miragliotta stood them up with Moicano still on the back. Nolan immediately fired a knee that dropped Moicano, chased him and landed a late takedown. In the third, Nolan stuffed Moicano's next level change, swept into top position and finished it with elbows and punches at 1:28 of round three. It earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Olin's read: the stand-up flipped the momentum, and the sweep and top control finished the job. Nano, who leaned Moicano going in, gave Nolan his credit. He's every bit as legit as we thought. Nano's one regret is that we never got to see Nolan work in the championship rounds.

What's next? Nolan sits 14th and Moicano 12th on the media panel rankings the show is using, and Nano expects them to swap. His pick is Rafael Fiziev, a striking matchup he thinks would be pure violence. Olin went bigger with Mauricio Ruffy, or the loser of Benoît Saint Denis vs. Quillan Salkilld, who headline in Sydney in February. Salahdine Parnasse came up as another fun fight. A viewer pitched the loser of Charles Oliveira vs. Diego Lopes, but both hosts called that too much, too soon.

2. Jacobe Smith

Pip has been telling you to watch Jacobe Smith for a while, and the undefeated prospect delivered on short notice against Randy Brown. Smith opened with leg kicks that took the sting out of Brown's long jab, then shot a double late in round one. From there the fight lived on the mat. In the second he broke Brown's rubber guard and landed elbows that split him open. In the third it was another slam takedown and more control. Brown was also docked a point in round two for grabbing the fence, and all three judges had it 30-26. Olin called it wrestling as a meat grinder, constant pressure that turned Brown's reach and experience into irrelevant details. It wasn't lay and pray. Smith hit a takedown every round and did damage from on top. Nano, a Rude Boy fan, called it a wrestling clinic from a former collegiate All-American.

What's next? Nano wants Kevin Holland, who sits around the edge of the welterweight rankings and has some bad blood with Smith. Olin wants Smith in with someone ranked: Daniel Rodriguez, Neil Magny or Leon Edwards, who could become the division's new gatekeeper. Olin also floated Joaquin Buckley, but doesn't think Buckley will take it.

3. Julian Erosa

Olin's dog of the week cashed again. JeongYeong Lee dropped Erosa with a left hook almost right away and nearly finished him in the scramble. Erosa could have taken the exit in what was billed as his retirement fight. Instead he fought back to his feet, reset and answered in the pocket with a clean overhand right that put Lee down, and ground strikes ended it at 1:31 of round one. Olin called it a classic case of surviving the storm and landing the bigger one, and said Juicy J may be the fighter who's won this show the most money as an underdog. Nano called it a storybook ending to what he counted as a 45-fight career, capped with a Performance of the Night bonus.

What's next? If this really was the last one, Olin hopes retirement treats Erosa as well as he has treated our bankroll. He's a gatekeeper who will be very hard to replace outside the top 15.

4. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

The whole panel picked Lebosnoyani, and Olin was one round away from cashing his best bet. Hasanov pushed early, as Olin predicted, and looked tougher than Nano expected. Lebosnoyani answered with body kicks and counters. In round two he stood up from an early takedown and started landing cleaner punches and front kicks as Hasanov slowed. In round three he turned up the pressure and opened a nasty cut across Hasanov's left eyelid, and the doctor stopped it at 2:11. Olin liked that Lebosnoyani didn't chase a flashy finish. He stayed composed and kept landing the harder, sharper shots, and the body kicks were the quiet work that made the late exchanges one-sided. It's three straight wins for Mufasa.

What's next? Nano likes Daniil Donchenko or Sam Patterson. Olin likes Joel Álvarez or, reluctantly, Randy Brown. A viewer pitched Lebosnoyani vs. Mike Malott as a dream fight, maybe a future Canada main event, and both hosts loved it. Olin thinks they're one or two fights away.

5. Joe Kropschot

The whole panel picked the debuting Kropschot, and he delivered, even if it got dicey. Nick Klein took his back early and hunted the rear-naked choke. Kropschot scrambled out, reversed position, trapped an arm in an inverted triangle and extended it into an armbar for the tap at 1:25 of round two. Olin called it grappling chess in real time: Klein thought he had the better position, and Kropschot turned the same sequence into a different submission. Clean debut, clean finish, and a Performance of the Night bonus. Kropschot was also Pip's leg of the hosts' parlay, which cashed.

What's next? Nano wants Jackson McVey, the moose against the land animal. Olin had McVey on his list too, along with Ryan Loder, Andrey Pulyaev and TUF alum Robert Valentin.

Biggest Losers

1. Renato Moicano

Olin and Nano both leaned Money, and Olin still thinks Moicano was robbed. Moicano had the dominant position, a body triangle and Nolan's back, when Miragliotta stood the fight up. Olin said it was egregious and unwarranted, and he cited Big John McCarthy's view: if you've worked for a dominant position like the body triangle and you're working to a choke, the referee can't stand you up and undo that work. A referee's job is not to interfere in a way that changes the outcome, and Olin believes that's exactly what happened. He also ran through a history of Miragliotta calls he disagreed with. Nano agreed the call begs the question of what could have been, but said Moicano still proved to be an absolute dog and was competitive throughout. Neither host thinks the loss takes much away from him.

What's next? The hosts didn't pitch an opponent. Nano expects Moicano and Nolan to trade places in the rankings.

2. Randy Brown

Both hosts are Rude Boy fans, and this was a tough one to watch. Brown had his best moments in the first two and a half to three minutes, making Smith miss, but once he got taken down he never found his range or rhythm on the feet. He tried an armbar from the bottom and kept moving, but he lost every round, gave up a point for grabbing the fence and finished on the wrong end of 30-26 on all three cards. He also cost Olin a leg in the round robins.

What's next? Olin, reluctantly, pitched Brown for Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani.

3. Francis Marshall

The panel swept this one for Marshall. Marshall missed weight by two pounds, the bout went ahead at 148, and Dakota Hope took a split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28). Olin read the numbers on air: Hope out-landed Marshall 72 to 62 in total strikes and 44 to 25 in significant strikes, and Marshall landed one takedown in five tries. Olin's take: Marshall looked OK but never incredible. It felt like a fighter who'd been told all camp he was better, then got hit and realized it wasn't supposed to feel this way. Olin thought the judges got it right.

4. Ode' Osbourne

Nano and Pip both picked Osbourne, and Cody Durden's wrestling took the fight away from him. Osbourne had striking moments and a late rally, but he spent the first two rounds on the defensive, and Nano wondered aloud whether Osbourne's career is heading in the right direction.

5. Mickey Gall

Gall lasted 15 minutes, which Nano said is more than we've seen from some. But he lost all three rounds on all three cards (29-27 x3, even with a point taken from Reese for an eye poke). The losing streak continues. The chat was less kind, with more than one call for retirement.

Other Notable Performances

• Cody Durden was Olin's pick, and he called how it would happen. The kicks set up the takedowns. Durden survived a guillotine attempt, took the back with a body triangle and hunted the rear-naked choke, then switched to a deep twister attempt that Osbourne later said nearly broke him. He kept dragging it back down and won a unanimous decision (29-28 x3), and Nano counted 6 of 8 takedowns. Olin's next names were Rei Tsuruya or the loser of Jafel Filho vs. Bruno Silva. Nano said Bruno Silva is about as high as he'd go.

• Luana Santos won the Santos vs. Santos fight by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) for her fourth straight win, and she was Olin's leg of the hosts' parlay. It wasn't the domination Olin expected. By the numbers he read, Yana out-landed her in total and significant strikes, but Luana landed 5 takedowns, took the back in round two for a rear-naked choke attempt, then tripped Yana in the third and rode the back for most of the round. Olin's line: Luana treated the clinch as a loading dock. For next, Olin likes Julianna Peña, Raquel Pennington or Norma Dumont, and Nano agreed on Pennington or Dumont.

• Dakota Hope edged Francis Marshall by split decision, getting sharper and more athletic as the fight went on, especially in rounds two and three. Olin's names were Kai Kamaka III, who beat Hope in Hope's UFC debut, Ricardo Ramos and Steven Nguyen.

• Rodrigo Sezinando made a fan out of Olin. The TUF alum hurt Theodor Berggren late in round one with a spinning backfist, took the back and moved to mount in round two, and opened a cut on Berggren's lip with an elbow that Olin said looked like a Halloween prop. The doctor stopped it after round two. Olin called it one of the top two fights of the night, with just under 200 strike attempts in 10 minutes. Nano wants Oban Elliott next, and he's not afraid of a bigger step up.

• Zachary Reese was Nano's leg of the hosts' parlay, and he beat Mickey Gall by unanimous decision (29-27 x3) despite losing a point in round one for an eye poke. Nano admitted it wasn't sexy and felt more like a point fight, but Reese was cleaner, harder and faster and controlled the spacing for 15 minutes. Olin's names were Robert Bryczek or Mansur Abdul-Malik. Nano liked Abdul-Malik and added Abubakar Vagaev.

• Piera Rodriguez swept Talita Alencar on the cards (30-27 x3). Olin's numbers: 102 to 57 in total strikes and 89 to 44 in significant strikes. Alencar found some scrambles and top position late in round two but never turned it into damage. Nano thinks Rodriguez is ready for someone ranked, such as Angela Hill, Amanda Lemos, Tabatha Ricci or Loopy Godinez.

• Lucia Szabová was dominant in her UFC debut. She mixed combinations with level changes, survived a Tainara Lisboa rear-naked choke threat in round one, then advanced from side control to mount and the back in round three until the referee stopped it at 3:20. Olin called it a systematic drowning, and it earned a Performance of the Night bonus. Nano likes Veronica Hardy. Olin likes Jamey-Lyn Horth and JJ Aldrich.

How our picks did

By our count from the predictions show, Olin went 9 for 12. He missed Moicano, his dog Randy Brown and Francis Marshall. Nano also went 9 for 12, with misses on Moicano, Osbourne and Marshall. Pip went 9 for 11 on the fights he picked. He had Nolan (by decision), Jacobe Smith and Luana Santos right, and his misses were Osbourne and Marshall.

The hosts' parlay cashed, with Nano on Zachary Reese, Pip on Joe Kropschot and Olin on Luana Santos. Olin's dog of the week, Erosa on the moneyline at +140, hit for 1.4 units. The half-unit on Erosa by submission missed when he won by knockout. Lebosnoyani in round two missed by a round, as the doctor stopped it at 2:11 of round three. The round robins pulled in 4.32 units, but Moicano and Marshall went down in them. Olin's verdict on the week: whelmed. Not good, not terrible. All in, the show finished down 0.206 units. A Moicano win would have added another 2.716 units, and we'd have been up about 2.5 units. As Olin's dad likes to say, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas.

Looking Ahead

Nolan is in the lightweight rankings mix, Jacobe Smith and Lebosnoyani are knocking on the door at welterweight, and Szabová and Kropschot both announced themselves in their debuts. Next up is UFC Vegas 124 on Nov. 7, now headlined by Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker after Sean Brady withdrew from his fight with Gabriel Bonfim. Was Miragliotta's stand-up the worst referee mistake in UFC history? Let us know in the comments on the YouTube episode.

Stay tuned as we keep breaking down the road ahead for the fighters of UFC Vegas 123…